The folder that MessageStats is using to gather the IIS logs from CAS server either does not exist on the CAS server or the logs are not written to that folder
Confirm which folder MessageStats is trying to gather the IIS logs from:
On the CAS server confirm that the path from Step 5 exists and that the IIS logs are written to the same folder. If the folder from Step 5 is not the same folder that the IIS logs are being written to, use wbemtest to confirm that WMI is returning the same information:
If the Site ID for the virtual directories matches the folder MessageStats is trying to gather from but the IIS logs are written to a different folder, the issue is environmental as MessageStats is using the data that WMI returned. Microsoft should be consulted to determine why IIS is logging to a different folder.